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Seven OPEC+ countries agreed on 4 October 2026 to leave their November 2026 crude production targets unchanged, according to a group press release reported by Enerdata. The OPEC+ November output decision is the second straight month the group has held steady rather than following through on the output increases it had signalled earlier in 2026.
Who agreed to what
The decision came out of a virtual meeting among Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Their individual targets for November are set at 10.5 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.9 million for Russia, 4.4 million for Iraq, 2.7 million for Kuwait, 1.6 million for Kazakhstan, 1 million for Algeria and 0.8 million for Oman. Those numbers match what the group had already set for October, meaning no formal increase takes effect for the second consecutive round.
Why the OPEC+ November output decision stayed flat
For much of 2026, OPEC+ had been unwinding years of production cuts, gradually raising targets as it tried to claw back market share. That plan has run into a problem the group’s own quotas can’t fix: actual exports are falling short of targets regardless of what gets agreed on paper. According to Enerdata’s account, the ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that a large share of Gulf oil has to pass through, while separate limits on Russian oil flows are constraining Moscow’s output independently of anything OPEC+ decides. Enerdata’s own reporting does not include the group’s official stated rationale, so this explanation reflects the analyst’s reading of the situation rather than an on-record OPEC+ statement.
A separate OPEC press release confirms the seven countries’ agreement to hold steady. In effect, the group is holding targets flat partly because raising them further would do little right now. If tankers can’t move through Hormuz at full volume and Russian flows are already constrained, announcing a higher headline target doesn’t translate into more oil actually reaching buyers.
What this means for prices and buyers
A flat output decision removes one obvious source of extra supply hitting the market in November, but it does not automatically push prices in one direction. Oil prices are shaped by a mix of factors: how much OPEC+ members are really exporting against their targets, how demand is tracking heading into the northern hemisphere winter, and how the regional conflict affects shipping and insurance costs for tankers moving through contested waters. Buyers in energy-importing countries should expect continued volatility tied to Hormuz-related headlines rather than a clean, predictable price path.
Where oil output goes from here
OPEC+ reviews its production targets on a recurring monthly cycle, so the next decision will set targets for December 2026. That meeting will be a clearer test of direction: if Hormuz disruptions ease and Russian export limits loosen, the group may finally move on the increases it has twice now deferred. If the disruptions persist or worsen, expect a third straight month of targets staying put, or even talk of fresh cuts if oversupply fears give way to concerns about actual availability.
Frequently asked questions
What did OPEC+ decide for November 2026?
Seven OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, agreed at a virtual meeting on 4 October 2026 to keep their required crude production targets for November 2026 unchanged from October.
Why didn’t OPEC+ raise output as planned?
OPEC+ had been raising output targets through much of 2026 after years of cuts, but the Middle East conflict has disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz and limited Russian oil flows, keeping actual group output below the targets it set.
What are the individual OPEC+ November output decision targets?
Saudi Arabia 10.5 million barrels per day, Russia 9.9 million, Iraq 4.4 million, Kuwait 2.7 million, Kazakhstan 1.6 million, Algeria 1 million and Oman 0.8 million, according to Enerdata’s reporting of the group’s own figures.
Does this mean oil prices will rise?
Not necessarily on its own. Keeping targets flat removes one source of extra supply, but prices also depend on demand, how much member countries are actually exporting versus their targets, and how the Middle East conflict affects shipping routes.
Is this the first time OPEC+ has paused its planned increases?
No. The group had also kept its September 2026 targets unchanged in the prior round, meaning November marks a second consecutive month without the increases OPEC+ had signalled earlier in the year.
When does OPEC+ meet again?
OPEC+ holds its production decisions on a recurring monthly cycle, with the next review expected to set targets for December 2026 based on how exports and the regional conflict are tracking by then.
For more on where energy and commodity markets stand this week, see our coverage of the EIA’s 2027 oil supply forecast and gold’s recent move against a stronger dollar.
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