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A new analysis puts a hard number on something many employment-based applicants already feel. The green card backlog wait times tracked by the National Foundation for American Policy keep growing, and for some nationalities, the projected wait now stretches well beyond a working career.
The NFAP analysis was covered by Newsweek in late August 2026. It found the employment-based backlog across the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories reached about 1.26 million people by December 2025. That is up from roughly 1.05 million in April 2020. The increase works out to 20.6% in under six years. EB-2 grew 22.9% over that period. EB-3 grew 30.1%. EB-1, the smallest category, actually fell 16.6%.
Why green card backlog wait times hit Indian applicants hardest
India accounts for nearly 1 million people in the backlog. That is about 79% of the total. The breakdown shows 731,566 people in EB-2 and 213,414 in EB-3. For Indian applicants filing in January 2026 or later, NFAP projects a wait of roughly 179 years in EB-2. EB-3 comes in at 38 years. EB-1 looks far better by comparison, at an estimated four to five years. Those numbers describe a queue no single applicant will realistically outlive in the slower categories.
Other countries face long waits too, just not on the same scale. China’s 2026 filers face a projected 25-year wait in EB-2. EB-1 runs five years for China, and EB-3 runs seven. The Philippines looks very different. Its applicants sit current or near-current in EB-1 and EB-2. Only EB-3 carries a wait, at six years. The gap between countries comes down to one structural rule. It has nothing to do with how hard anyone’s case gets reviewed.
The rule driving green card backlog wait times
The Congressional Research Service has documented this limit for years. Congress set the annual employment-based green card limit at 140,000 back in 1990. It has not raised that number since. Demand from a growing global applicant pool has climbed steadily in the meantime. A separate per-country cap adds another constraint. It limits any single nation to 7% of each category’s annual allocation, no matter how many qualified applicants that country produces. India and China send far more applicants into these categories than that cap can absorb each year. That mismatch is the direct cause of their multi-decade queues.
More than 280,000 extra green cards went out from FY2020 to FY2024. Those came from unused family-sponsored numbers that would otherwise have gone unclaimed. Even that extra supply did not shrink the backlog. Demand outpaced the bonus numbers every single year in that stretch.
How this connects to other 2026 visa changes
The backlog numbers help explain why several other 2026 immigration stories matter together, not just individually. Tamara News covered the November 2026 Visa Bulletin. That update moved most categories forward while leaving India and China largely stuck. A similar pattern showed up in coverage of the Department of Labor’s PERM suspension affecting major employers. That suspension slows the pipeline feeding into this backlog even further, for workers at large tech companies especially. Canada’s own Express Entry reforms this October show a different country taking a very different approach. Canada prioritizes high earners through a points system, not a strict per-country cap.
What would actually move green card backlog wait times
NFAP’s report points to one lever above all others: congressional action. Raising the 140,000 annual cap would help. Adjusting or removing the 7% per-country limit would help too. Either step, or both together, would directly shrink the projected wait times described here. Without legislative change, the report expects backlogs to persist or grow. Current limits predate the internet-era applicant pool by more than three decades. No such legislation was pending in Congress as of the most recent reporting reviewed for this piece.
FAQ: green card backlog wait times
How big is the US employment-based green card backlog?
The NFAP analysis put it at about 1.26 million people across EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 as of December 2025.
Which country faces the longest green card backlog wait times?
India, by a wide margin. NFAP projects roughly 179 years in EB-2 and 38 years in EB-3 for Indian applicants filing from January 2026 onward.
Why do India and China face much longer waits than other countries?
A per-country cap limits each nation to 7% of each category’s annual green cards, regardless of applicant volume, and both countries send far more applicants than that cap can absorb.
Has Congress raised the green card limit recently?
No. The 140,000 annual employment-based limit has stood since 1990, with no increase as of the most recent reporting.
Do EB-1 applicants face the same backlog?
No. EB-1 is in much better shape, with the category’s backlog shrinking 16.6% and projected waits of four to five years for Indian applicants.
What would shorten the green card backlog wait times?
NFAP points to congressional action, such as raising the annual cap or adjusting the per-country limit, as the main levers that could meaningfully reduce the backlog.
Can an employer do anything to speed up a green card case?
An employer can file early and keep paperwork current, but it cannot change the per-country caps or the annual limit, since those are set by federal law, not employer practice.
Does the backlog affect family-sponsored green cards too?
This particular analysis focuses on employment-based categories. Family-sponsored visas have their own separate backlog and per-country rules, which NFAP’s report does not cover in the same detail.
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