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Wall Street earnings season opens October 13 when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase report third-quarter results, and the numbers analysts are penciling in set a demanding bar: consensus estimates put Goldman’s Q3 2026 revenue at $17.4 billion and earnings per share at $15.39, up roughly 22 percent and 39 percent respectively from the same quarter last year. That comparison flatters the trend but obscures a harder one: analysts expect both figures to land below Goldman’s own record-setting second quarter.
The setup reflects a year in which investment banking and trading desks have outperformed expectations repeatedly, pushing the bar higher each quarter and leaving less room for upside surprises than markets saw earlier in 2026.
What to expect as Wall Street earnings season opens
Goldman’s advisory backlog reached a five-year high in the second quarter, and the bank has maintained its position as the top-ranked player in M&A advisory, IPO underwriting, and leveraged finance. Equity trading has stayed strong heading into Q3, according to the bank’s own commentary, while fixed income, currency, and commodities trading — FICC — has cooled somewhat from its exceptional second-quarter pace. Analysts expect asset and wealth management to remain a bright spot. Alternatives fundraising hit $59 billion in Q2 alone, part of a push toward a $125 billion-plus annual target.
Management has also flagged higher non-compensation expenses — more than $500 million above the prior quarter — and a more muted contribution from investment gains compared with Q2’s unusually strong showing, both of which temper how much of the headline revenue growth will reach the bottom line.
Why the Wall Street earnings season bar keeps rising
This year’s run of strong bank results has been driven by a genuine revival in deal activity after a sluggish 2023–2024 stretch for M&A and IPOs, combined with buoyant equity markets that have lifted trading revenue and asset management fees across the sector. The effect compounds: each strong quarter raises the baseline against which the next one is judged, meaning banks now need to clear a record-high comparison just to be read as “in line” rather than disappointing.
That dynamic puts particular pressure on October 13’s releases, since Goldman and JPMorgan traditionally set the tone for how the rest of the sector — including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, which report in the following days — will be read by investors already primed for strength.
What investors will be watching for
Beyond the headline revenue and EPS numbers, analysts will be parsing the mix: how much of the growth is coming from one-off advisory fees tied to large, lumpy M&A deals versus more durable trading and asset management revenue. A quarter that beats estimates on the back of a handful of mega-deals reads differently to markets than one built on broad-based strength across business lines.
What happens after the first results land
If Goldman and JPMorgan clear their elevated bar on October 13, expect the rest of the sector’s reports later that week to be read through an optimistic lens; a miss from either bank, conversely, could reset expectations for the smaller regional and mid-size banks reporting into late October. Either way, the fourth quarter has historically been a strong one for capital markets activity, giving banks some cushion even if Q3 comes in only roughly in line with estimates.
Questions readers are asking
When does Wall Street earnings season start this quarter?
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on October 13, 2026, with other major banks following in the days after.
What revenue is Goldman Sachs expected to report?
Consensus estimates put Goldman’s Q3 2026 revenue at $17.4 billion, with earnings per share of $15.39.
Will results beat last quarter’s numbers?
Not necessarily. While both figures would be up sharply year-over-year, they are expected to decline sequentially from Goldman’s record-setting Q2 2026 performance.
Which bank segments are expected to be strongest?
Investment banking advisory and equity trading are seen as the strongest areas, while fixed income trading has cooled from its exceptional Q2 pace.
Which other banks report after Goldman and JPMorgan?
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo typically report in the days following Goldman and JPMorgan’s releases.
Also on Tamara News
For the broader economic backdrop, see our report on the September jobs report miss and its effect on Fed rate expectations, and our coverage of mortgage rates hitting a three-year high. For the international angle, read about European stocks and bond yields in 2026.
Sources
- Hudson Labs — Goldman Sachs (GS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview. https://www.hudson-labs.com/research/goldman-sachs-q3-2026-earnings-gs-results-preview
- Digrin — Stock Earnings Calendar, October 13, 2026. https://www.digrin.com/stocks/earnings_calendar/2026-10-13
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