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17 Sep 2026
Rows of data centre servers, the cost base behind OpenAI funding talks in 2026

OpenAI Funding Talks Point to a Valuation Above $1.2trn

Categories Business, Tech

OpenAI funding talks are under way with large investors over a new private financing that could value the company at more than $1.2 trillion, and possibly closer to $1.5 trillion. The discussions are described as early stage. Separately, chief executive Sam Altman has said the company will not go public in 2026.

Two things are being reported here, and they pull in the same direction: a very large amount of capital, raised in a way that keeps the company out of public markets.

The numbers, and how firmly to hold them

A range of $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion is wide, and the width is the point. Early-stage discussions produce figures that reflect what the most optimistic participant is willing to discuss, not what gets signed. Rounds at this scale routinely reprice between first conversation and close, and some do not close.

What can be stated plainly is that the talks are happening and that the figures under discussion are far above the company’s last marked valuation. The detail appeared in reporting on the week’s technology news.

Altman rules out a 2026 listing

Speaking to Fortune, Altman said OpenAI will not go public this year, describing the current moment as ill-advised for a listing. He cited safety considerations and said the company still has work to do.

It is worth noting where the interest lies. A company raising privately has reason to present private markets as the sensible venue, and a chief executive fielding IPO questions has reason to close them down rather than fuel speculation. That does not make the statement untrue; it does mean it should be read as a position rather than a neutral assessment.

Why private capital keeps winning here

The practical advantages are straightforward. No quarterly earnings cycle. No obligation to disclose compute contracts, model economics or customer concentration. No public share price to discipline a spending plan measured in gigawatts rather than quarters.

The constraint is that private capital at this scale is concentrated among a small number of sovereign funds, crossover investors and strategic partners — which is how arrangements like the one we covered in our report on the SoftBank loan to OpenAI come about. Concentration cuts both ways: it is fast, and it makes the company answerable to a short list of people rather than a market.

What the money buys

The cost base in frontier AI is compute. Financings of this size are, in practice, infrastructure financings — data centre capacity, power, and access to chips whose supply is shaped as much by export policy as by manufacturing. That policy environment has been shifting, as set out in our coverage of the chip export legislation debate.

The governance side is moving too. Our report on Microsoft’s AI code of conduct traces how the largest players are codifying commitments that, for a listed company, would eventually become disclosure obligations.

The circularity problem

There is a structural feature of AI financing that deserves naming. Large sums raised from investors who also supply chips, cloud capacity or distribution create arrangements in which a portion of the capital returns to the investor as revenue. That is not improper, and it is common in capital-intensive industries, but it does complicate the question of what a valuation reflects.

When a supplier invests in a customer who then spends the investment with the supplier, both companies book activity that a purely external observer would count once. Analysts have been raising this about AI infrastructure deals generally, and it is a reasonable thing to hold in mind when a private valuation moves by hundreds of billions without a public market testing it.

Altman’s own position on a listing, reported by Fortune, keeps that test at a distance for at least another year. The company gains flexibility; outside observers lose the one mechanism that would price these questions continuously and in public.

What would confirm this

Three markers would turn reporting into fact: named lead investors, a stated round size rather than a valuation range, and any regulatory filing triggered by the transaction. Until at least one appears, the honest description is that serious investors are discussing serious numbers, and that OpenAI would prefer to stay private while they do.

Questions about the reported round

What valuation is OpenAI discussing?

Reports describe early talks with large investors over a private financing round that could value the company at more than $1.2 trillion, and possibly as high as roughly $1.5 trillion.

Is OpenAI going public?

Not this year. Sam Altman told Fortune the company will not list in 2026, calling the current moment ill-advised, citing safety considerations and saying the company still has work to do.

Why raise privately instead of listing?

A private round avoids public reporting obligations, quarterly earnings pressure and the disclosure a listing requires, while still supplying capital. For a company spending heavily on compute, that combination is attractive.

How does this compare with previous OpenAI funding?

It would be a substantial step up. The company has raised repeatedly through private markets and debt, including the SoftBank arrangement reported earlier this year.

Are the talks confirmed as a deal?

No. The reporting describes early-stage discussions. Valuations floated at that stage frequently move before terms are signed, and rounds sometimes do not close at all.

What would the money be for?

OpenAI’s cost base is dominated by compute. Large financings in this sector are generally read as funding for data centre capacity and chip access rather than headcount.

17 Sep 2026
Trading screens showing bond prices as the 10-year Treasury yield passed 5%

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5% for First Time Since 2007

Categories Business

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at roughly 5.01% on 16 September 2026, its highest level since 2007. The move came after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate and signalled that at least one more increase was likely before the end of the year. Bonds sold off through the afternoon; the benchmark had traded as low as 4.94% earlier in the session.

Where the curve moved

The repricing was not confined to the long end. The 2-year note yield rose more than 7 basis points to about 4.738%, erasing an earlier decline, according to CNBC’s account of the session. Short-dated yields move most directly with policy expectations, so a jump there reflects the market accepting the Committee’s projection of further tightening rather than fading it.

The benchmark 10-year finished up about 2 basis points on the day at 5.016%. The headline number matters less than the threshold it crossed. Five per cent has been a psychological marker for two decades, and the last sustained visit was before the 2008 financial crisis.

The dollar’s best session in three months

Currency markets followed the yield. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%, its largest single-day advance since 17 June 2026, which was the date of Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in the role. Bloomberg attributed the gain to the prospect of continued tightening rather than the hike itself.

Metals moved the other way. Gold and silver both fell sharply on the session, extending a slide we covered when gold reached a six-week low. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income.

Why a 5% handle changes calculations

The 10-year is a reference rate far beyond the Treasury market. It anchors long-term mortgage pricing in several economies, sets the discount rate analysts apply to future corporate earnings, and shapes what governments pay to roll over debt. A great deal of debt issued between 2020 and 2022 was priced against yields closer to 1-2%. Refinancing that stock at 5% is a materially different exercise.

For equities, the arithmetic is blunt: a higher risk-free rate lowers the present value of distant cash flows, which weighs hardest on the longest-duration growth names. That tension runs straight into the earnings calendar we outlined in our preview of the big tech earnings week.

The policy backdrop

The Fed’s decision itself, including the unanimous vote and the projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting another hike, is set out in our report on the September rate decision. Analysts at FXStreet described the hike as expected and the message as more hawkish — a reading consistent with a bond market that sold off on the guidance rather than the action.

The spillover beyond US markets

A US 10-year at 5% resets the global pricing floor. Sovereign borrowers who issue in dollars compete for the same capital as the Treasury, and when the risk-free benchmark rises, everything priced as a spread above it rises with it. That arithmetic falls hardest on emerging-market issuers, whose spreads tend to widen at the same moment the base rate climbs.

Currency effects compound it. A stronger dollar raises the local-currency cost of servicing dollar debt for any borrower earning revenue in something else. Importers of dollar-priced commodities face the same squeeze from the other direction.

There is also a portfolio effect that is easy to overlook. When a US government bond yields 5%, the case for holding riskier assets to reach a target return weakens considerably. Capital that flowed toward higher-yielding markets during the low-rate decade has a reason to come home, and flows of that kind tend to move faster than the fundamentals that supposedly drive them.

What to watch next

Whether 5% holds is the open question. A yield that touches a level and retreats tells you about positioning; one that settles there tells you about expectations. The next inflation release and the Treasury’s forthcoming auction sizes will both feed into that. So will any sign that the two officials who see rates staying put are gaining company. For now, the curve is priced for a Fed that is not finished.

Common questions about the move

How high did the 10-year Treasury yield go?

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 5.01% on 16 September 2026, its highest level since 2007. It had traded as low as 4.94% earlier in the session before the Fed decision.

Why do Treasury yields rise when the Fed raises rates?

A higher policy rate raises the return on holding cash, so investors demand more yield to hold longer-dated bonds instead. Expectations of further hikes push that repricing further out along the curve.

What happened to the 2-year yield?

The 2-year Treasury note yield rose more than 7 basis points to about 4.738%, erasing an earlier decline. Short-dated yields track policy expectations most directly.

How did the dollar react?

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%, its biggest single-day gain since 17 June 2026. Higher yields on dollar assets tend to draw capital toward the currency.

What does a 5% 10-year yield mean for borrowers?

The 10-year is a reference point for long-term borrowing costs, including mortgages in several markets and corporate debt issuance. A sustained 5% level raises the cost of refinancing debt taken on when yields were far lower.

Is 5% unusual by historical standards?

Not historically, but it is unusual recently. The last time the 10-year sat at this level was 2007, before the financial crisis ushered in more than a decade of exceptionally low yields.

17 Sep 2026
Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, the institution behind the September 2026 Fed rate hike

Fed Rate Hike Lifts Benchmark to 3.75%-4% in Policy Turn

Categories Business

The Federal Reserve delivered a Fed rate hike on 16 September 2026, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00%. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12-0. It is the first increase since 2023, and it reverses the direction policy had been travelling for most of the past two years.

The Committee framed the move as unfinished business rather than a new emergency. “Inflation remains elevated,” it said in its statement, adding that the action “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.”

The decision in numbers

The target range moves from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. The implementation note published by the Federal Reserve Board sets out the corresponding adjustments to the administered rates that keep the effective funds rate inside that band.

What separates this from a routine quarter-point step is the direction. Markets had spent two years pricing a path that trended down. A unanimous vote to go the other way removes the argument that the Committee is split on whether the inflation problem has been solved.

What Kevin Warsh said

In his opening statement at the post-meeting press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had remained too high for too long, and that recent readings had not shown a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend. That is a deliberately narrow claim: not that inflation is accelerating, but that the disinflation many had assumed was continuing has not shown up in the data with enough consistency to act on.

It was Warsh’s second meeting as chair; his first was in June 2026. Reporting from CNBC’s coverage of the decision characterised the accompanying message as more hawkish than the hike itself.

The projections matter more than the hike

The quarter point was widely expected. The Committee’s updated projections were not fully priced. Sixteen of eighteen policymakers now anticipate at least one further quarter-point increase before the end of 2026. Only two see the rate staying where it is. Officials’ year-end projections sit between roughly 4.1% and 4.4%.

A single hike can be read as insurance. A hike plus a near-unanimous expectation of another is a forecast that the Committee thinks the level of rates, not just the direction, was wrong.

How this sits against other central banks

The Fed is not moving in isolation. The European Central Bank has already been navigating its own turn, covered in our report on the ECB’s interest rate decision this year. Where the two diverge is in the starting point and in how much slack each economy still has.

Rate-sensitive assets responded immediately, including the moves in metals set out in our note on gold’s slide to a six-week low. Bank research desks have been revising their year-end paths accordingly, as tracked in our summary of one major bank’s 2026 forecast.

What it means away from the trading floor

For households, the transmission is slow but not subtle. Variable-rate borrowing reprices first, followed by new fixed-rate lending as banks reset their offers. Savers see the benefit sooner than borrowers see the cost, because deposit rates can move within days while most existing loans reprice on a schedule.

For companies, the question is refinancing. Debt raised during the low-rate years matures on a calendar that does not care about the policy cycle, and each maturity now rolls into a materially higher coupon. Businesses with staggered maturities absorb that gradually; those with concentrated refinancing dates do not.

For governments outside the United States, a higher federal funds rate tightens conditions without any domestic decision being taken. Dollar borrowing costs rise, currencies managed against the dollar come under pressure, and central banks face a choice between defending the exchange rate and supporting domestic demand.

What follows from here

Three things are worth watching. The first is the next inflation print, because the Committee has now tied itself explicitly to the underlying trend rather than headline readings. The second is whether the two dissenting projections become a bloc; unanimity on a decision does not mean unanimity on the path. The third is the transmission lag. A rate that has moved once after two years of the opposite signal takes time to filter into credit conditions, and the Committee has said it will judge by what the data shows rather than by a pre-set schedule.

The Fed’s next scheduled opportunity to act falls before year-end. On its own projections, most of the Committee expects to use it.

Questions readers are asking

How much did the Federal Reserve raise rates in September 2026?

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75%-4.00%, at its meeting on 16 September 2026. The vote was unanimous at 12-0.

When did the Fed last raise interest rates before this?

The last increase before September 2026 was in 2023. Every move in between was either a cut or a hold, which is why this decision is being described as a turn rather than a continuation.

Why did the Fed hike instead of holding?

The Committee said inflation remains elevated and that the action would support a timelier return to its 2% goal. Chair Kevin Warsh said recent readings had not shown meaningful improvement in the underlying trend.

Is another rate increase expected in 2026?

The Committee’s own projections show 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one more quarter-point increase before the end of 2026. Only two saw rates staying where they are.

Where do Fed officials think rates end the year?

Year-end 2026 projections from officials cluster between 4.1% and 4.4%, which implies at least one more quarter-point step from the new 3.75%-4.00% range.

Does a Fed hike affect borrowers outside the United States?

Indirectly, yes. The federal funds rate anchors dollar funding costs worldwide, so dollar-denominated debt, trade finance and currencies managed against the dollar all tend to move when the Fed shifts direction.

16 Sep 2026
gold price

Gold Price Slides to Six-Week Low as Rate Hike Nears

Categories Business

The gold price has slipped to around $4,290 an ounce, its weakest level since early August, as a firmer dollar, higher Treasury yields and expectations of a US rate rise combine against the metal in the busiest central bank week of the quarter.

In this briefing

Where the price sits

Gold settled at $4,295.94 an ounce on 15 September 2026, down 0.07 per cent on the session, according to market data compiled by Trading Economics. Over the previous month the price fell about 2.7 per cent, but it remains roughly 16 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Both facts matter. A 2.7 per cent monthly decline from an elevated base is a pullback inside an uptrend, not a reversal of one. Headlines describing a slide should be read against the year-on-year gain.

Why gold is falling in an inflationary year

The intuition that gold rises with inflation is only half right. Gold competes with government debt, and the relevant comparison is the real yield — the return on a bond after inflation.

When central banks respond to an inflation shock by raising policy rates faster than inflation itself, real yields rise, and a non-yielding asset becomes more expensive to hold. Add a stronger dollar, which makes dollar-priced gold costlier for buyers using other currencies, and the direction of the past month follows. That is exactly the combination currently in place.

A dense week of decisions

The Federal Reserve’s decision falls on 16 September. Market pricing points to a 25 basis point increase to a 3.75 to 4.00 per cent target range, which would be the first US hike since 2023. That is an expectation derived from futures, not an announced outcome, and it should be treated accordingly until the statement lands. The Fed publishes the resulting rates in its H.15 selected interest rates release.

The European Central Bank follows on 17 September; our report on the ECB’s move covers the euro area picture. The Bank of Japan is expected to act on 18 September, and the Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank both decide on 24 September, per the published 2026 decision calendar. The Bank of England met on 10 September.

Four major central banks moving inside nine days is unusual, and it concentrates currency volatility. For gold, the dollar leg of that is as important as the rates leg: a synchronised tightening cycle abroad limits how far the dollar can strengthen, which cushions the metal.

Energy is the variable underneath

None of this is happening because of demand overheating. It is happening because oil has stayed above $100 a barrel after supply disruption in the Middle East, including the shutdown of a major Saudi export pipeline. Our coverage of the East-West pipeline outage and the wider price shock sets out the supply picture.

Energy-led inflation is awkward for central banks because raising rates does not produce barrels. The tightening is aimed at stopping the shock feeding into wages and expectations, not at the shock itself — which is why the forecast dispersion among analysts on where oil goes next is unusually wide, and why rate paths beyond this month are genuinely uncertain.

How to read the next few sessions

For gold, the near-term signal is not the rate decision itself but the guidance attached to it. A hike already priced in does little; language implying further increases lifts real yields and pressures the metal further, while any hint that this is a one-off would likely put a floor under it.

The broader market read runs the same way. Equity investors have spent the month weighing the same energy-and-rates combination, as our report on the big tech earnings week and on the run-up to the Fed decision both describe.

Gold and rates, explained

What is the gold price now?

Gold settled at $4,295.94 an ounce on 15 September 2026, down 0.07 per cent on the day and around 2.7 per cent lower over the previous month.

Is gold still up year on year?

Yes. Despite the recent slide it remains roughly 16 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Why does a rate hike push gold down?

Gold pays no income. When yields on government debt rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises with them, and a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Which central banks are deciding this week?

The US Federal Reserve on 16 September and the European Central Bank on 17 September, with the Bank of Japan expected to move on 18 September. The Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank follow on 24 September.

Is the Fed expected to cut or hike?

Market pricing points to a 25 basis point increase to a 3.75 to 4.00 per cent target range, which would be the first hike since 2023. That is an expectation, not an announced decision.

What is driving inflation in this cycle?

Energy. Crude above $100 a barrel following Middle East supply disruption has fed through to headline inflation in most large economies.

Keep reading

16 Sep 2026
airline fuel cost

Airline Fuel Costs Jump to $350bn and Fares Follow

Categories Business

The global airline fuel cost bill is on course to rise from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026, according to the International Air Transport Association — an increase of close to 40 per cent that is already showing up on tickets as carrier-imposed surcharges.

What follows

The numbers behind the fare rises

IATA’s mid-year assessment, published in its June release on industry profitability, put jet fuel at an expected average of $152 a barrel for 2026, up almost 70 per cent on the $90 average of 2025. The underlying crude assumption was Brent at $95 a barrel for the year, up 37 per cent from $69 in 2025.

Because fuel sits at roughly 29 per cent of global airline operating expenses — a share IATA expects to reach 31.4 per cent in 2026 — a move of that size cannot be absorbed in margins. Passenger ticket revenue is forecast at $839 billion in 2026, up 9.2 per cent on $768 billion in 2025, and a good part of that increase is fuel pass-through rather than growth.

These are an industry association’s own projections, and IATA has an interest in framing cost pressure sympathetically. The direction, though, is corroborated by its own jet fuel monitor and by carrier disclosures.

The crack spread problem

Crude is only half the story. The crack spread — the premium refined jet fuel commands over Brent — is expected to average $57 a barrel in 2026, which IATA describes as a historic high.

That matters because hedging programmes are usually built around crude, not the refined product. An airline that hedged Brent well can still be badly exposed if refining margins blow out, which is what a record crack spread means. It also means fares do not fall as fast as crude does when the oil price retreats, because the refining premium is slower to normalise.

How it reaches your ticket

Passengers rarely see a line item called fuel. They see YQ or YR codes, grouped on the fare breakdown under “taxes, fees and carrier-imposed surcharges”. The grouping is misleading: those two codes are set by the airline, not by any government or regulator.

On long-haul premium itineraries the amounts are substantial. On a round trip between London and New York in a premium cabin, carrier-imposed surcharges alone can exceed $700. The effect is sharpest on award bookings, where surcharges are typically payable in cash — so a redemption that cost a fixed number of points last year now carries a much larger cash component.

Two practical checks help. Compare the total, not the headline fare, when the same route is offered by carriers in different jurisdictions, since surcharge practice varies. And on award tickets, price the same route on a partner airline before booking, because surcharge policy differs between partners on identical metal.

Airlines are still profitable

The industry is not in distress. IATA forecasts net profit of $23.0 billion for 2026 — roughly half the previous year’s figure — on operating expenses of $1.117 trillion, with expense growth of 13 per cent outrunning revenue growth.

Halving a margin is painful, and it changes behaviour: thinner routes get cut, frequencies fall on marginal city pairs, and older, less efficient aircraft come out of service faster. Passengers feel that as reduced choice before they feel it as higher headline fares.

The variable nobody controls

Every figure above rests on the crude assumption, and crude has run ahead of it. Brent has traded above $100 a barrel since supply disruption in the Middle East, with the shutdown of a major Saudi export line adding to the pressure — see our reports on the East-West pipeline outage and the resulting price shock across Asia.

If Brent holds above the $95 assumption for the rest of the year, IATA’s profit forecast is optimistic and surcharges have further to run. If the disruption eases, crude falls before the crack spread does, so relief on tickets will lag relief at the pump. Either way, the near-term direction for fares on long-haul routes is up. Operational strain is compounding it, as our coverage of UK airport disruption this month shows.

Questions about fares and surcharges

How much are airline fuel costs rising in 2026?

IATA projects the industry fuel bill rising from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026, an increase of close to 40 per cent.

What is the crack spread and why does it matter?

It is the premium jet fuel commands over crude. IATA expects it to average $57 a barrel in 2026, which it describes as a historic high, meaning airlines pay more than the crude price alone would imply.

What are YQ and YR on a ticket?

They are carrier-imposed surcharge codes shown under taxes, fees and carrier-imposed surcharges. The airline sets the amount, not a government or regulator.

Are airlines losing money?

No. IATA forecasts industry net profit of $23.0 billion in 2026, roughly half the previous year’s level, on operating expenses of $1.117 trillion.

Do surcharges affect points bookings?

Yes. Carrier-imposed surcharges are generally payable in cash even on award tickets, which is why redemption values fall when surcharges rise.

Will fares keep climbing?

That depends on crude. IATA’s forecast assumed Brent averaging $95 a barrel for the year, and prices have traded above $100 since the Middle East supply disruption.

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