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05 Oct 2026
Brazil runoff election results

Brazil Runoff Set for Oct 25 as Bolsonaro Edges Lula

Categories World

Brazil’s presidential election will go to a runoff on 25 October 2026 after neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the first round. With nearly 99 percent of votes counted, right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 44.9 percent, according to Al Jazeera.

In this report

The first-round numbers

Al Jazeera reports that Bolsonaro led Lula by roughly 56 million votes to nearly 53 million. Two other candidates, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, together took about 5.3 million votes and have said they will not endorse either finalist in the runoff.

A result that beat the polls

Al Jazeera’s analysis says Bolsonaro outperformed polling by about two percentage points, possibly helped by protest votes. Before the vote, one AtlasIntel survey cited by Bloomberg had put him narrowly ahead, at 47.6 to 46.6. We covered the run-up in our earlier election preview.

A stronger right in Congress

The Liberal Party (PL), Bolsonaro’s party, is on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and gained ground in the Senate, per Al Jazeera. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, and Carlos Bolsonaro, Flavio’s brother, was elected senator in Santa Catarina. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible and imprisoned, yet the movement he built still showed strength.

What happens next

The two finalists now have three weeks to campaign. Al Jazeera notes that a stronger right-wing legislature could complicate Lula’s agenda if he is re-elected, or ease Bolsonaro’s if he wins. Live results coverage is on the Al Jazeera live blog.

Brazil runoff: your questions

When is the Brazil runoff?

The second round is scheduled for 25 October 2026, between Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Who won the first round?

Flavio Bolsonaro finished first with about 47 percent of valid votes, ahead of Lula on 44.9 percent, with nearly 99 percent counted, according to Al Jazeera.

Why is there a runoff?

Brazilian law requires a candidate to win more than 50 percent in the first round. Neither did.

Will the other candidates endorse anyone?

Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together took about 5.3 million votes, said they would not endorse either candidate.

Related reading: our report on UK budget pressure and the wider markets story.

03 Oct 2026
Brazil presidential election - Brazilian flag

Brazil Election Sunday: Lula and Bolsonaro in a Dead Heat

Categories World

The Brazil presidential election takes place on Sunday 4 October 2026, and polls show a race too close to call. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and if neither wins more than 50 percent of valid votes, the top two go to a runoff on 25 October, according to Devdiscourse.

What this report covers

Where the polls stand

The most detailed recent figures come from Datafolha, which surveyed 2,002 people on 22 and 23 September. ThePrint reported first-round support of 40 percent for Lula and 36 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, followed by Augusto Cury on 5, Ronaldo Caiado on 4 and Renan Santos on 3.

In a simulated runoff Lula led 47 to 45 percent. With a margin of error of two points, the poll described that as a technical tie. Devdiscourse notes that other surveys disagree: a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gives Lula a slight advantage, while Quaest showed Bolsonaro ahead for the first time. Treat any single poll as a snapshot.

Who is on the ballot

Lula, aged 80 according to the Everything Briefing newsletter summary of the day’s news, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula, as ThePrint reports.

According to an overnight brief compiled by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies citing the Associated Press, Lula and Bolsonaro both skipped a planned debate, leaving about 158 million voters without a head-to-head. That detail is secondhand, so check the AP report directly.

Why investors are watching

Devdiscourse reports that Bolsonaro’s market-friendly economic approach has drawn investor enthusiasm and helped trigger rallies in Brazilian assets. That makes the first-round result relevant beyond Brazil for anyone with exposure to emerging-market bonds, currencies or commodity exporters. For wider market context this week, see our pieces on European stocks and bond yields and US Treasury yields at the end of September.

A Brazilian founder with dollar-denominated debt, for example, would care less about who wins than about how long the uncertainty lasts. A runoff keeps the question open until 25 October.

What to watch on Sunday and after

The first thing to watch is whether either candidate clears 50 percent of valid votes. Given the polls, a runoff looks plausible, though no poll can confirm it. Official results come from Brazil’s electoral authorities; wire services and broadcasters will report early counts. If a runoff is needed, expect two more weeks of campaigning on the economy, security and the legacy of the 2022 election dispute.

Questions about the Brazil election

When is the Brazil election?

The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026. A runoff, if needed, is scheduled for 25 October 2026.

When is a runoff needed?

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the top two advance.

Who is leading in the polls?

It depends on the survey. Datafolha showed Lula ahead 40 to 36 percent in the first round; Quaest has shown Bolsonaro ahead, per Devdiscourse.

Is Jair Bolsonaro running?

No. His son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, is the candidate. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence, ThePrint reports.

Our world coverage will carry the result once official counts are in.