This US Green Card Category Could Slam Shut in the Next Two Weeks

The State Department’s September 2026 Visa Bulletin warns of a possible green card category retrogression. It could hit several employment-based categories before the fiscal year closes on September 30. EB-1 India, EB-2 for all countries, and the EB-5 Unreserved category are all named. The trigger is simple. Demand keeps pace with how many visa numbers remain available.

Why a Green Card Category Retrogression Happens Every September

Congress caps the number of employment-based green cards issued each fiscal year. The State Department allocates those numbers on a rolling basis through the Visa Bulletin. A category’s usage can near its annual limit before the fiscal year ends. When that happens, the department has two options. It can retrogress the final action date, pushing it backward so fewer applicants qualify. Or it can make the category fully unavailable until the new fiscal year opens on October 1. This is an annual bottleneck, not a new policy change. It recurs whenever demand in a category runs ahead of supply late in the fiscal cycle.

Which Categories Are Actually at Risk This Year

Immigration firms including Fragomen have summarized the September bulletin’s warnings. EB-1 India’s final action date currently sits at October 15, 2022. High demand could still exhaust that category’s annual allocation before new numbers open in FY2027. EB-2 for all countries has already been marked “Unavailable” for the rest of FY2026. EB-5 Unreserved faces a similar risk. The State Department says demand and usage there could force a retrogression or closure before September 30. The goal is keeping total number use within the fiscal year’s cap.

What Retrogression Actually Means for an Applicant

If a category retrogresses or becomes unavailable, USCIS generally cannot approve new applications in it. That holds until the next fiscal year begins. It also holds even if an applicant’s priority date was previously current. Applicants who already filed shouldn’t need to refile once new numbers open on October 1. Still, they may see a real gap of days or weeks with no further approvals in that category. Fragomen’s guidance notes something reassuring here. USCIS has said it will keep honoring final action dates that were current when a case was filed. That softens some of the risk for applicants already in the pipeline.

How This Differs From the October Bulletin’s Good News

This warning about near-term retrogression tells a different story. Tamara News covered a more optimistic outlook for the October 2026 bulletin separately. That bulletin could reopen EB-2 India and advance other stalled categories once the new fiscal year begins. Both things can be true at once. A category can face retrogression risk in late September. It can still see meaningful forward movement starting October 1. The annual limits simply reset with the new fiscal year.

Why Fiscal Year-End Timing Catches People Off Guard

Applicants who checked their category’s status earlier in the summer sometimes assume it holds steady until the next bulletin. It often doesn’t. Category movement can shift week to week in September specifically. That is when USCIS and the State Department reconcile actual number use against the annual cap for the first time all year. Attorneys describe the final weeks of the fiscal year as the least predictable stretch on the entire visa calendar. That is exactly why guidance can change with little advance notice.

Who This Warning Doesn’t Affect

Family-based green card categories operate under a separate set of annual limits and aren’t named in this particular warning. Neither are most other employment-based categories outside EB-1 India, EB-2, and EB-5 Unreserved, which have their own final action dates and haven’t shown the same usage pressure this fiscal year. That’s a separate question from the public charge rule taking effect September 18, which affects admissibility rather than annual visa limits. Applicants in unaffected categories should still track the monthly bulletin as a matter of routine, but the September 30 deadline pressure described here applies specifically to the three categories named above.

What Applicants Should Do Before September 30

Immigration attorneys generally advise one thing to applicants with pending cases in EB-1 India, EB-2 or EB-5 Unreserved: confirm case status with counsel now. Waiting for a possible retrogression announcement carries real risk. USCIS processing timelines mean action taken in the final two weeks of September matters more than usual. Applicants should also watch for the October 2026 Visa Bulletin’s publication. It’s expected in the second half of September, and it will confirm whether any at-risk categories actually retrogressed or held steady.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a green card category retrogression?
It’s when the State Department moves a visa category’s final action date backward, or makes it unavailable. This happens when usage nears the fiscal year’s annual limit.

Which green card categories are at risk before September 30, 2026?
EB-1 India, EB-2 for all countries, and EB-5 Unreserved are the categories the State Department flagged as at risk.

Will I have to refile my application if my category retrogresses?
Generally no. USCIS has said it will keep honoring final action dates that were current when a case was filed. New approvals may still pause until the next fiscal year.

Does this affect the October 2026 Visa Bulletin outlook?
No, they’re separate. A category can face retrogression risk in late September and still move forward once new fiscal year numbers open on October 1.

When does the new fiscal year’s visa allocation begin?
October 1, 2026. Fresh annual numbers become available then for every employment-based category.

Sources

• Fragomen — United States: September 2026 Visa Bulletin analysis. fragomen.com
• US Department of State — Visa Bulletin for September 2026. travel.state.gov