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Yearly Archives: 2026

Tamara News  /  Blog  /  2026
27 Sep 2026
EBRD Africa growth outlook city skyline

Africa’s Growth Engine Just Downshifted — One Country Held Firm

Categories Business

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development trimmed its EBRD Africa growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.8% for 2026, down from an earlier 5.1% projection. The update, published September 24, 2026, pointed to higher oil prices, trade disruption linked to the Middle East conflict, and mounting debt-servicing costs across the region. It flagged Nigeria as one of the few economies whose forecast held steady, thanks to domestic reforms.

EBRD Africa growth outlook reflected in Nigerian business activity

What the EBRD Africa growth outlook actually shows

The EBRD’s downgrade covers Sub-Saharan Africa broadly. It moderates growth to 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, both below the bank’s previous estimates. The bank’s economists cited a familiar mix of pressures. Energy costs have climbed since the year’s Middle East disruptions. Investment flows into the region have weakened, and commodity price swings are hitting exporters unevenly. High debt-servicing costs stood out as a constraint. That leaves many governments with less room to cushion households or businesses against the slowdown.

Nigeria bucks the regional trend

Nigeria’s own forecast held at 4.2% growth for 2026, easing only slightly to 4.0% in 2027. The EBRD attributed that contrast directly to “economic reforms, investment activity and improved external balances.” That resilience places Nigeria alongside Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which the bank noted have completed IMF programs this year. Benin, Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria all received sovereign credit rating upgrades in 2026 too. Those upgrades matter in practice. They typically lower the cost of borrowing on international markets, partially offsetting the regional headwinds the EBRD describes.

Why the slowdown is happening now

Much of the regional pressure traces back to global forces outside any single African government’s control. The wider Middle East conflict has disrupted trade routes and shipping costs this year. Oil-importing economies across the region have felt that directly through higher energy bills. Several currencies remain under pressure at the same time. Debt-servicing costs continue to eat into government budgets that would otherwise fund infrastructure or subsidies. The EBRD’s report frames this as a structural vulnerability, not a one-off shock, since many of these fiscal constraints predate this year’s specific disruptions.

What it means for businesses and investors

A cut from 5.1% to 4.8% is not a collapse. But it does confirm that momentum built earlier in the decade is cooling. Investors weighing exposure to Sub-Saharan African markets will likely watch one thing closely: the credit-rating trajectory in Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana, more than the headline regional number. Those upgrades signal improving fiscal management even as the broader region faces external pressure. Companies with supply chains touching the region should expect continued volatility in energy costs and currency movements through the rest of 2026.

What happens through the rest of 2026

The EBRD typically revisits its regional forecasts twice a year. The next formal update would arrive in the first half of 2027, unless conditions shift sharply enough to warrant an interim revision. In the meantime, expect individual country reports from the IMF and World Bank to add more granular detail. Those reports should show how the debt-servicing burden and Middle East-linked trade disruption are playing out market by market. Oil importers most exposed to higher energy costs will likely feature most.

Frequently asked questions

What is the new EBRD Africa growth outlook for 2026?

The EBRD forecasts Sub-Saharan Africa will grow 4.8% in 2026, down from an earlier 5.1% projection, easing further to 4.7% in 2027.

Why did the EBRD cut its forecast?

The bank cited higher energy costs, trade disruption tied to the Middle East conflict, and weaker investment. High debt-servicing costs are also constraining government budgets across the region.

Is Nigeria affected by the downgrade?

Nigeria’s forecast held at 4.2% growth for 2026, which the EBRD attributed to domestic economic reforms, investment activity and improved external balances.

Which countries received credit rating upgrades in 2026?

Benin, Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria all received sovereign rating upgrades in 2026, according to the EBRD’s report.

When will the EBRD update this forecast again?

The bank typically revises its regional outlook twice a year. The next scheduled update would come in the first half of 2027, absent a major shift in conditions.

How the EBRD’s forecasts get used

The EBRD is one of several multilateral lenders, alongside the IMF and World Bank, whose regional forecasts matter well beyond the report itself. Sovereign investors, credit-rating agencies and multinational companies use them directly when deciding where to allocate capital. A downgrade like this one does not by itself change any country’s credit rating. But it does shape the narrative investors carry into their own risk assessments. That matters most for economies without the kind of recent rating upgrades that Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Benin secured this year. Governments in the region often respond to these periodic downgrades by highlighting their own reform programs. Nigerian officials, for instance, have pointed to improved external balances as evidence their economy can outperform the regional trend.

More on the global economy this week

For more on the global economic backdrop shaping this outlook, see our reporting on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the bond-market selloff in Treasury yields.

Sources

27 Sep 2026
Venezuela Rodriguez Washington visit

Venezuela’s Leader Left Washington Without a Deal or a Vote Date

Categories World

Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, left Washington’s orbit this week without a deal, after a high-profile swing through the United Nations General Assembly in New York produced photographs with President Trump but no signed agreement on debt, energy or mining, and no firm date for the elections she has promised. The trip was her first to the United States since Nicolas Maduro’s removal by US forces in January 2026, and it was meant to show that Caracas’ new government could translate a warm reception in Washington into concrete economic relief.

A high-profile visit, a thin outcome

Rodriguez used her time in New York to press for sovereign debt restructuring, renewed energy partnerships and mining investment, framing the visit as the start of Venezuela’s return to international markets after years of sanctions and isolation. According to Modern Diplomacy’s reporting, she secured high-profile meetings, including with Trump, but departed without a signed agreement on any of her three priorities.

The $2.5 billion question

Among the ideas discussed was a potential $2.5 billion bridge loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to help stabilize Venezuela’s finances during the transition. The proposal drew opposition from some IDB member states, and no commitment was finalized during the visit. Without that bridge financing, or an equivalent private arrangement, Venezuela’s government has limited room to fund reconstruction while sanctions relief remains only partial.

Elections promised, no date given

Rodriguez reaffirmed a commitment to hold free elections but avoided naming a date, a gap that drew criticism from analysts covering the visit. Al Jazeera’s analysis of Rodriguez’s UN appearance noted the political turnaround required for a former Maduro loyalist to now court Washington, and questioned how quickly a credible vote could actually be organized. Analysts covering the trip estimate that organizing credible elections could take more than a year, given the state of Venezuela’s electoral institutions after years of one-party control.

Why Washington is watching the calendar

The lack of a firm election date matters because it is the central condition Washington has attached to further sanctions relief and normalized relations. As one analyst put it, there is real “urgency for her to provide a timeline for voting” — without it, US officials have little basis to argue for lifting the remaining restrictions that are choking off the investment Rodriguez came to New York to unlock.

What happens next

Rodriguez’s political standing at home may now hinge on decisions made in Washington rather than Caracas. If the Trump administration presses for a near-term election date as a precondition for the debt and energy deals still on the table, the interim government will face pressure to set a timeline it currently appears reluctant to commit to. If it does not, expect the current holding pattern — warm photo opportunities, unresolved financing — to continue into the new year, with Venezuela’s economic recovery stalled in the meantime.

More world coverage

Related reading: the Falklands sovereignty dispute, Russia’s 2026 Duma election results, and the stalled Sudan Quintet peace talks.

Venezuela visit questions answered

Did Venezuela and the US sign any agreement?

No. Despite meetings including photographs with President Trump, Delcy Rodriguez left New York without a signed deal on debt, energy or mining.

What is the $2.5 billion loan being discussed?

A proposed bridge loan from the Inter-American Development Bank intended to help stabilize Venezuela’s finances during its political transition. Some IDB member states have opposed it, and no commitment was finalized.

Did Rodriguez commit to an election date?

She reaffirmed a promise to hold free elections but did not name a specific date, which analysts flagged as a key gap from the visit.

How long could organizing elections take?

Analysts covering the visit estimate that organizing credible elections could take more than a year, given the current state of Venezuela’s electoral institutions.

Why does the election timeline matter to Washington?

A credible election date is the central condition the US has attached to further sanctions relief, so its absence limits how far Washington can move on the economic relief Venezuela is seeking.

Sources

27 Sep 2026
Kalshi prediction market ruling gavel and law books

A Federal Court Just Told Kalshi It Isn’t Above State Gambling Law

Categories Business

The 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals handed down a Kalshi prediction market ruling on September 25, 2026. It lets states regulate event-contract trading the same way they regulate gambling. The decision rejects Kalshi’s argument that federal oversight of its contracts preempts state gambling law. The Cincinnati-based court’s ruling immediately gives Ohio and Tennessee grounds to treat Kalshi’s sports and event contracts as regulated gambling activity.

Kalshi prediction market ruling affects trading screens showing event contracts

What the Kalshi prediction market ruling decided

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It argued that status meant individual states could not layer their own gambling rules on top of its contracts. The 6th Circuit disagreed. It found that states retain the authority to regulate event contracts that function like wagers on sports results and other outcomes. That holds regardless of federal exchange registration. The ruling does not shut Kalshi down. But it opens the door for state regulators in the 6th Circuit’s jurisdiction. They can require licensing, restrict certain contract types, or block the platform outright.

A split among the federal courts

The decision deepens a growing conflict between appeals courts. The 9th Circuit previously found Kalshi subject to Nevada’s gambling laws, aligning with Friday’s 6th Circuit outcome. The 3rd Circuit reached the opposite conclusion, ruling that New Jersey’s gambling statutes do not reach Kalshi’s contracts. Two circuits now sit on one side and a third on the other. Legal analysts say the Supreme Court may eventually need to step in. The question: are prediction markets federally exempt from state gambling oversight nationwide?

Why regulators are moving now

The timing is not coincidental. New York sued a Kalshi competitor, Polymarket, days before the 6th Circuit ruling, accusing it of running an unlicensed gambling operation. New York Governor Kathy Hochul said plainly that “by running an unlicensed gambling operation, Polymarket has done more than just knowingly violate state law.” Prediction markets have grown quickly over the past two years. Retail traders use them to bet on everything from elections to sports outcomes. State attorneys general and gaming commissions have grown more assertive in response. They increasingly treat that growth as a licensing and consumer-protection issue, not a novel financial product exempt from their reach.

What it means for traders and the industry

For everyday users, the immediate effect depends on where they live. Traders in Ohio and Tennessee could see new restrictions on which Kalshi contracts are available to them. That mirrors how online sports betting is already licensed state by state. The split rulings create genuine uncertainty for the broader prediction-market industry’s expansion plans. A platform now has to navigate different legal standards depending on which federal circuit a user’s state falls under. That holds until the Supreme Court steps in, or Congress writes a uniform federal standard.

What comes next for prediction markets

Kalshi has not said whether it will seek a rehearing or push directly for Supreme Court review. A formal certiorari petition, if filed, would take months to resolve. In the meantime, expect other states within the 6th Circuit’s reach to test similar arguments against Kalshi and rivals like Polymarket. Gaming regulators outside that reach are watching too. The New York case against Polymarket will be an early signal. It will show how aggressively states plan to use their gambling laws against this category of trading platform.

Frequently asked questions

What did the Kalshi prediction market ruling actually decide?

The 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate Kalshi’s event contracts as gambling. It rejected the company’s argument that federal exchange registration preempts state oversight.

Which states are directly affected first?

Ohio and Tennessee, both within the 6th Circuit’s jurisdiction, can now apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s event contracts.

Does this ruling shut Kalshi down?

No. It lets affected states regulate or restrict specific contracts. Kalshi keeps operating in jurisdictions where courts or regulators have not imposed similar restrictions.

Why do different courts disagree on this?

The 9th Circuit sided with state regulation in a Nevada case, matching the 6th Circuit. The 3rd Circuit found New Jersey’s gambling law did not apply to Kalshi, creating a split that could draw Supreme Court review.

Is Polymarket involved in this ruling?

Not directly, but New York sued Polymarket days earlier over similar unlicensed-gambling allegations, showing regulators are pursuing multiple prediction-market platforms at once.

What should traders on these platforms expect?

Traders should expect the availability of certain contracts to vary by state as more regulators test their authority following this decision.

How prediction markets differ from traditional betting

Kalshi and its rivals describe their products as event contracts. These financial instruments pay out based on whether a defined event occurs. The companies market them more like derivatives than a sportsbook wager. Supporters of that framing say event contracts serve a genuine price-discovery function. They let traders hedge real-world risks tied to elections, economic data or corporate outcomes. A traditional bet does not offer that. Critics disagree, including several of the state regulators now asserting authority over these platforms. A contract paying out on a sports score, they argue, is a wager no matter how it is packaged. That is precisely the argument the 6th Circuit accepted this week.

More on this week’s markets

For more on this week’s financial-market backdrop, see our coverage of the stock market’s weekly gains and the bond-market rout in Treasury yields.

Sources

27 Sep 2026
New Caledonia earthquake damage aftermath

A Magnitude 6.6 Quake Just Rattled the Pacific — What USGS Found

Categories World

A magnitude 6.6 New Caledonia earthquake struck the Pacific on September 25, 2026, at 21:23 UTC, according to the US Geological Survey. It hit 80 kilometers east-northeast of Tadine at a shallow depth of 10 kilometers. Seismologists watch shallow, offshore quakes like this one most closely for tsunami potential. The USGS rated the alert level Green, its lowest tier, meaning it expected limited casualties and damage.

New Caledonia earthquake magnitude tracked on seismograph monitoring equipment

Where the New Caledonia earthquake struck

The epicenter sat in open water off Tadine. That town sits on the Loyalty Islands, part of New Caledonia, a French territory roughly 1,500 kilometers east of Australia. The region sits along a seismically active stretch of the Pacific. It has produced moderate-to-strong earthquakes before; a magnitude 7.7 event struck the nearby Loyalty Islands region in 2021. Monitoring networks across the Pacific recorded Saturday’s quake within minutes. Regional tsunami warning centers reviewed the data. They found no grounds for a widespread coastal evacuation.

Why a Green alert still matters

USGS uses its PAGER system to estimate likely fatalities and economic losses within hours of a quake. It color-codes the result from Green through Red. A Green rating for the New Caledonia earthquake means the modeled probability of significant casualties stays low, largely because the epicenter sat offshore and away from dense population centers. That does not rule out localized damage on the Loyalty Islands themselves, where older buildings can be vulnerable even to moderate shaking. Local authorities typically still run on-the-ground damage assessments over the following days, regardless of the automated alert level.

A pattern of Pacific seismic activity this year

The quake adds to a string of significant Pacific Rim events in 2026. That reflects the ordinary background rate of seismicity along the region’s subduction zones, not any single unusual trend. Still, each event draws renewed attention to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center’s monitoring network. That network continuously screens undersea earthquakes for the depth, magnitude and location that could generate a damaging wave.

What travelers and residents should watch for

Airlines and cruise operators serving the South Pacific routinely monitor USGS and national tsunami center bulletins after any quake above magnitude 6.0 in the region. No advisories were issued for shipping lanes or coastal flights this time, and New Caledonia’s main airport continued normal operations. Residents in low-lying coastal areas still face a standing precaution after any offshore quake: move to higher ground if the shaking itself feels strong or prolonged, rather than waiting for an official alert. A very close offshore quake can generate a local wave faster than warnings can be issued.

What happens in the aftermath

French territorial authorities and New Caledonia’s own civil security services are expected to complete structural inspections of public buildings on the Loyalty Islands over the coming days. Aftershocks are common after a magnitude 6.6 event. They can continue for days or weeks, generally decreasing in size and frequency over time. The USGS updates its earthquake catalog in near real time. Any significant aftershock or revised magnitude will appear there first. Residents and travelers can check that catalog directly rather than relying only on secondhand reports, which is often the fastest way to confirm whether a felt tremor was a new event or simply an aftershock of Friday’s quake.

Frequently asked questions

How strong was the New Caledonia earthquake?

The US Geological Survey recorded it at magnitude 6.6, striking 80 kilometers east-northeast of Tadine at a shallow depth of 10 kilometers on September 25, 2026.

Was a tsunami warning issued?

No widespread tsunami warning was issued. Regional monitoring centers reviewed the earthquake’s characteristics and did not find grounds for a broad coastal evacuation.

What does a Green PAGER alert mean?

It is the USGS’s lowest alert tier, indicating a low estimated likelihood of significant casualties or damage based on the earthquake’s location, depth and magnitude.

Is New Caledonia prone to earthquakes?

Yes. The Loyalty Islands sit in a seismically active part of the Pacific that has produced several moderate-to-strong earthquakes in recent years, including a magnitude 7.7 event in 2021.

Were flights or shipping affected?

No advisories were issued for regional flights or shipping lanes, and New Caledonia’s main airport continued normal operations after the quake.

How earthquakes like this get measured and named

The USGS’s global seismic network automatically logs every earthquake above roughly magnitude 4.5, anywhere in the world, within minutes. Hundreds of monitoring stations triangulate the epicenter and estimate magnitude from the size of the recorded seismic waves. The “80 km ENE of Tadine” description is standard USGS shorthand. Rather than naming a quake after a single town, the agency measures distance and direction from the nearest significant population center to the calculated epicenter. That is why offshore events get described relative to the closest coastal town, even when people felt the shaking across a wider stretch of ocean and coastline.

Pacific travel and shipping coverage on Tamara News

Pacific weather and seismic disruption has been a recurring theme this month — see our reporting on Typhoon Dujuan’s disruption of Tokyo flights and Hurricane Nolo’s impact on Hawaii travel.

Sources

27 Sep 2026
White House press access ruling briefing room

A Judge Just Told the White House It Can’t Pick Its Own Press Corps

Categories World

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration on September 24, 2026, to restore White House press credentials to journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico. The White House press access ruling found the outlets’ hard passes had been “revoked without constitutionally adequate due process.” The order came three days after the three organizations sued over letters that stripped their reporters of building access.

White House press access ruling affects journalists covering the briefing room

What the White House press access ruling actually says

US District Judge Timothy Kelly issued a 14-day temporary restraining order. It compels the administration to let the three outlets back onto White House grounds. He found the ban likely violated the reporters’ Fifth Amendment due-process rights. He also rejected the government’s stated justification. Administration lawyers had argued that “access to the White House is a privilege — not a right.” They accused the outlets of publishing classified details. CNN reported on bunker construction. MS NOW covered munitions used in the Iran conflict. Politico reported on Secret Service planning. Kelly noted that the president himself had instead pointed to “fake news” as his reason for the ban. That undercut the national-security defense.

How the ban started

The White House sent letters revoking the three outlets’ hard passes on September 22, 2026. CNN, MS NOW and Politico sued the next day. Kelly held an emergency hearing on September 23. He issued his order the following morning. Reporters from all three organizations had already been turned away from the grounds that morning. That prompted the outlets to file for emergency relief. They regained access under the court’s order by Thursday afternoon.

Why the White House press access ruling matters beyond three newsrooms

The case tests a legal doctrine that has protected reporters for nearly five decades. The administration is explicitly asking the courts to overturn Sherrill v. Knight. That 1977 ruling bars the White House from denying credentials to working journalists without a fair process. If that precedent falls, future administrations of either party would gain much wider latitude to exclude outlets they find unfavorable. Press-freedom groups and legal scholars are watching that shift closely.

What happens after the restraining order expires

A temporary restraining order is a short-term fix, not a final answer. Kelly’s order runs 14 days. During that window, the court will set an expedited schedule for arguments on a preliminary injunction. That injunction could keep the outlets’ access in place for the duration of the lawsuit. President Trump has said the administration will “go for appeal.” Kelly noted that temporary restraining orders are generally not appealable. That leaves emergency relief from a higher court, or the injunction hearing, as the administration’s more realistic options. Legal analysts say emergency relief is the harder bar to clear.

The bigger press-freedom picture

Global audiences following the story are watching for a signal. It concerns how far an elected government can go in policing its own press corps. Similar disputes have surfaced this year at statehouses and city halls. None has reached the scale of a sitting president trying to redefine credentialing rules at the White House itself. A ruling that survives appeal would likely be cited well beyond Washington, in disputes over government access to reporters in other democracies.

What happens next for CNN, MS NOW and Politico

For now, reporters from the three outlets can move around the White House grounds as before. Their lawyers are preparing for the preliminary-injunction phase. The administration will have to produce more than a letter citing “verifiable falsehoods” to justify a permanent ban. Readers should expect briefing schedules and possible appellate filings over the next two weeks. Those filings will determine whether Thursday’s order becomes a lasting rule or a temporary reprieve.

Frequently asked questions

What did the White House press access ruling change?

It temporarily restored building access and White House press credentials for CNN, MS NOW and Politico after a federal judge found the administration likely violated the outlets’ due-process rights when it revoked their hard passes.

Who issued the order and how long does it last?

US District Judge Timothy Kelly issued a 14-day temporary restraining order on September 24, 2026, with a hearing on a longer-term preliminary injunction to follow.

Why did the White House ban the three outlets in the first place?

The administration said the outlets published information it deemed classified or damaging, including reporting on bunker construction, military operations and Secret Service planning, and argued that White House access is a discretionary privilege.

Is the administration appealing the ruling?

President Trump said the administration would appeal, though the judge noted that temporary restraining orders are generally not appealable, leaving emergency relief or the injunction hearing as the likelier next steps.

What legal precedent is at stake?

The case puts pressure on Sherrill v. Knight, a 1977 ruling that requires the White House to follow a fair process before denying journalists credentials.

Does this affect journalists outside the United States?

Not directly, but legal observers say a ruling that survives appeal could be referenced in disputes elsewhere over government control of press access.

More from Washington this month

For more on how Washington’s institutions are being tested this month, see our coverage of the UN Security Council’s AI briefing and the UN General Assembly address by Israel’s prime minister, both part of a busy month for high-stakes institutional disputes.

Background: how White House credentialing normally works

Outside moments of open conflict like this one, White House credentialing is a routine administrative process. Reporters apply for a hard pass through the White House Correspondents’ Association and the Secret Service. That review runs standard background checks unrelated to the content of a journalist’s reporting. Once granted, a hard pass is rarely revoked. On the occasions it has been challenged before, courts have generally sided with reporters, citing the same due-process concerns Judge Kelly raised this week. That history explains why this case has drawn attention well beyond the three outlets involved. It tests whether that decades-old norm still holds when a president disagrees strongly with specific coverage, rather than with a journalist’s conduct.

Sources

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